| |
| |
|
|
Day Trade Blog - Ivesting Information Learn to invest in the stock market, invest like a pro daytrader swing trading penny stocks |
|
|
|
How to Analyze the Veracity of Investment Newsletters
When trying to analyze whether a promotional ad for an investment newsletter or a market timing investment trading system is worthy of investigation, the following questions should be asked: Does the strategy have a track record? Without this you are really allowing your emotions to be in play. All of us want to believe that if someone says something it must be true. Yet the sad fact is the truth is probably just the opposite. Most ads and promotions are put in print for self interests first, and all else second. One has to view anything on the web with a skeptical eye. The minimum that an investment strategy should give you is a previous track record. The longer the track record is the better. Something that has worked for a matter of months is usually not long enough in the trading world to be considered successful. Some promoters do not release their track records because they say that "past performance is not an indication of future results". This is true but certainly no performance is not an indication of future results either. Some promoters do not release their track records because they say "we used to do a track record but subscribers got upset if the strategy lost money when they subscribed even though it made money over a yearly period." That may also be true but it is also part of the game. Subscribers can not expect to make money from day one when trading a long term strategy. However, that should be self evident in the track record. And some promoters do not release their track records simply because they don't have one or they have a bad one. It's as simple as that no matter what they say. Is the track record that they are promoting in real time or was it simulated in a computer based on past data? What does this really mean? Real time means that the trading signals that were used to produce the track record results were actually generated at that specific moment in time. In reality. Most track records on the investment web sites are not real time even when they say they are. Even if they did not use a computer and it was done by hand, if the data taken from the last five years but the web site is only a year old then it can't be so. Why is this so important? Because trading is not trading if human emotions are removed. No greed, no complacency, no panic, no hysteria. Almost all computer-generated trading programs fail miserably when actually implemented because either the data was too short a time period or the human factor was ignored. That is assuming the human that input the data did it without human emotion. I once had an acquaintance who told me he had a system that returned 80% per month for the last 6 months. He said he implemented it 6 months in real time. I asked how much he had invested in this strategy. He said nothing because he was paper trading. I said that there is no such thing. He proceeded to tell me what paper trading was. I replied that I knew what he thought paper trading was but it is not trading because when you paper trade your emotions are not in play. Human greed and ego has a way of making you believe something to be real without looking objectively at the data. But once actual real money is at risk the complexion of the situation dramatically changes. How can you tell if the track is in real time if they lie about it being in real time? This is not always easy but there are some basic tell tale signs. If it is a short term system that risks very little and trades often, say 10-50 times per month. Yet it has an 80-90% trade success ratio, which is almost impossible statistically. Most day traders and position traders are doing well if they are winning 40-50% of the time. If they risk more and do not use tight stops, then the win loss ratio goes up but the size of the drawdowns or the size of the largest loss has to go up. Longer term trader may have a slightly better win loss ratio but only if their risk is also larger. To make a general statement, the larger the win loss ratio is the more I would be skeptical. What if the track record is a combination of partly historically back tested signals and partly real time signals. How should I analyze that? The first thing to look at is if the win loss ratio has changed dramatically over the track record time period. For example, if it is a 5 year time period, and the promoter claims that the trade signals went live 2 years ago yet the win loss ratio changed dramatically only 6 months ago, beware. The hardest thing to detect on the web is when you're being conned about a hypothetical track record because there is no real way to tell when a web sites track record was edited deleted or revised. Some web sites use an independent tracking site but there are no real ways for a consumer to know other than that. I hope that the previous ideas will help to determine fact from fiction in the world of investment newsletter promotions. John McKeon info@buypanic.comhttp://www.buypanic.com
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
How To Create Wealth In The Stock Market First and foremost, an opportunistic strategy for creating wealth in the stock market is needed. And the opportunistic strategy for creating wealth in the stock market must have two ingredients, a plan and a goal. Day Trading the SP Futures with Initial S/R and the NYSE TICK For instance, if the market moves up in the first 20 minutes of trading, touches the initial resistance zone, and then turns down, this implies that a good tradable downtrend move is likely to develop.How strong that new trend becomes is market-dependent. Annuity Investment Guide While there is not a lack of information on annuities, there certainly is a lack of good information. In an age full of information, we are constantly bombarded with irrelevant data. Can Your Annuity Do This? Okay, so I can tell you I have sat in front of countless numbers of people who have made mistakes when purchasing and owning annuities. And I have visited people who wish they never got involved in an annuity. The Perfect Mutual Fund The Perfect Mutual Fund is the one you build yourself!The perfect Mutual Fund you build should have the objective of owning no more than 12 to 15 companies; owning shares in 12 companies would allow the diversity needed to sleep well at night and would provide a cash dividend every week of the year.The 12 companies (with staggered dividend payout dates) in yourperfect Mutual Fund should not only provide a cash dividend every week of the year, the companies should also have a historical record of raising their dividends every year for at least the past 8 years (to eliminate risk). Missleading Fund Names Wreak Havoc On Investor Returns! Mutual fund managers use fake fund names to part you from your money such that you cannot judge what a fund does by its name. Many funds have names that are outright misleading or even deceptive. Finding the Perfect Company The perfect company - it's the holy grail of the investment world. The company that will make its initial investment hundreds of times over. Lobster Trapping for Investment Ideas Recently, my family and I took a trip to Maine to visit relatives. During our stay, we toured the rocky shore lines and took in the beautiful architecture of the old towns. Basic Options Terms Options are good investing and speculative instruments. But options terminology may confuse even experienced investors. A Gadfly On A Dinosaurs Butt, Or The Hood-winking Of The American Investor Have you ever noticed how some words in the English language are so perfectly named for what they describe? And how some words seem to be, I guess you could say, backwards? For instance, the word sunflower! How wonderfully aptly named is the sunflower, that beautiful yellow flower that follows the sun from sunrise to sunset.And then there are those words in the English language where there meaning appears to be backward, so to speak - like parkway and driveway. Rolling your 401k: Contributory IRA vs. Rollover IRA In an ideal world you would start your working career with a great company in your early 20s, steadily climb the corporate ladder, retire at age 65, and draw a sufficient income from your accumulated 401k account to live happily ever after.Unfortunately, that's not how the real world works. How to Invest Your Money Think carefully on how to invest your money because if you make wrong decisions it could cost you dearly. There are many ways in which to invest your money and as such seeking the advice of a professional would be a very wise move. Discover the Foundation of Retiring Wealthy - The IRA! Let me tell you about some legal ways to avoid getting taxed on profits from the stock market. You can make a lot of money now with the stock market as low as it is at this time as I teach you in my home study course. Trading Systems A trading system consists of a set of rules for viewing markets and making trades. The advantages of trading systems can be hidden when they become associated with trading platforms involving trade order submission and processing. Why Should I Use Penny Shares to Build Wealth? A strategic question. Why indeed?1. The Benefits of Laddering Your CD Investments If you've decided to stock some money away in a certificate of deposit, why not reap the highest benefit over time by laddering your CD investments? What's a CD latter? I'm glad you asked.A CD ladder is made up by purchasing several CD's at one time with different maturity dates. An Economical Retirement Investment Plan The practice of economy, directed toward a retirement investment plan in the stock market, is in itself a source of great revenue. It is the art of making the most out of every stock market investment, with the definite purpose or goal being to provide a life that is fully independent of monetary concerns. Maniac Investment Let's first understand what maniacmeans. According to Webster a maniac is "mad;raging with madness; raging with disorderedintellect". Foreign Investing - US Investors Still Missing Out? Investors are still too slowly realizing what the academics have long pointed out -- adding foreign stocks to your portfolio will, over the long term, increase your returns and lower the overall risk of your portfolio.US investors embracing foreign investing are both realists and optimists. IF - The Wonders of Investing If it seems as if all investors are selling, who is buying? If trading has become entertainment for you, it may be time to refocus on profits. If your stock has reached an annual low, can it go any lower? If your stock has reached an annual high, can it go any higher? If all the television analysts jumped off a bridge, would anyone care? If your portfolio is based solely on fundamental analysis, perhaps it is time to learn technical analysis.
|
| home Day Trade Blog | site map |
| © 2006 Day Trade blog investing and stock market resource |
